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]]]]]]]]]]]]]] KEEP COOL ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING [[[[[[[[[[[[
by Natalie and Gerald Sirkin, (11/25/1989)
for publication in "Citizen News"
(New Fairfield, Connecticut) of November 22, 1989
[Kindly uploaded by Freeman 06784LOEB]
Why do so many people believe in the dire forecasts? Perhaps the
historian Hans Morgenthau was right when he wrote in 1946, "The
intellectual and moral history of mankind is the story of insecur-
ity, of the anticipation of impending doom, of metaphysical anxie-
ties."
Dixie Lee Ray, Policy Review, Summer,
1989, "The Greenhouse Blues," p. 72
If you have been losing sleep over global warming and the "green-
house effect," and wondering what to do with your winter woolies, you can
relax and hold onto them. The greenhouse hubbub is much ado about noth-
ing.
Since 1880, the greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere--chiefly carbon
dioxide (CO2) and methane--have increased 42 percent. But the global
temperature has risen by less than one-half degree (0.47) centigrade.
Curiously, most of that 0.47-degree increase occurred from 1880 to
1938, when the increase of greenhouse gasses was small. During the
half-century since 1938, when the bulk of the increase in greenhouse gas-
ses occurred, the global temperature increased only 1/8 of one degree
centigrade. If (as it appears) the rate of increase of temperature is
inversely related to the rate of increase of greenhouse gasses, strong
skepticism about the greenhouse theory is warranted.
It is doubtful that even that tiny increase in average temperature
occurred. Greenhouse theorists like to use 1880 as the base to make
their case stronger: 1880 was the low point of a twenty-year fall in av-
erage temperature. If instead we use the 1860s as a base, the data show
no increase at all in average temperature.
The Historical Record
Those who reach conclusions about global warming from one or two hot
summers are on weak ground. The long and often mysterious history of the
earth's weather is more likely to contradict the greenhouse theory than
support it.
An extended period of subnormal weather in the 17th century, known
as the "Little Ice Age," happened when the atmosphere was certainly not
getting any cleaner. Below-average temperatures from 1950 to 1970, which
set alarmists worrying about a new Ice Age, were contrary to the green-
house theory since greenhouse gasses were increasing.
Ice-core drillings and marine sediments give a picture of atmospher-
ic conditions and temperatures going back 16,000 years. In those samples
we find periods of high CO2 levels, which were obviously unrelated to the
activities of man. And we find that the cycles of temperature are not
correlated with the variations of carbon dioxide.
Clearly, nature produces changes in atmosphere and temperature that
dwarf the effects of man.
Sources of Greenhouse Gasses
Natural processes generate carbon dioxide and methane on a gigantic
scale. Volcanoes release great quantities of greenhouse gasses. So do
swamps, rice paddies, and decaying vegetation.
Some surprising sources are of major significance. Who would ever
think of termites? And yet the digestive process of termites releases
carbon dioxide at a rate estimated to be ten times that of burning fossil
fuels.
The methane produced by the digestive process of cattle and other
cud-chewing animals is estimated to be about the same as the amount pro-
duced by burning fossil fuels.
As Dr. Petr Beckmann states, "[I]t seems unlikely that ANY man-made
activity could be significant in comparison with the vast quantities of
CO2 and methane released by volcanoes, swamps, animals and other members
of pristine nature."
Earth's Equilibration
Why haven't the greenhouse gasses that have been produced over thou-
sands of years raised global temperature? Because the earth has
counter-processes that tend to keep temperature around an equilibrium.
Trees by photosynthesis inhale carbon dioxide which they convert
into oxygen which they exhale. In this way forests dispose of vast quan-
tities of carbon dioxide.
While parts of the world have been undergoing extensive deforesta-
tion, the United States has as many trees now as in Colonial times. It
pays timber companies to plant as many trees as they harvest or more.
Cutting and replanting further reduce carbon dioxide, because the princi-
pal removers of carbon dioxide are young trees; mature trees remove rela-
tively little. The faster the timbering and replanting go, the greater
will be the reduction of carbon dioxide.
A second equilibrating process is radiation. The earth radiates
(reflects back into space) some of the heat from the sun. The more heat
that is radiated from the earth (and so the less that is absorbed into
the earth), the lower the earth's temperature. A rise in temperature in-
creases water vapor, which increases the cloud cover, which reflects more
heat away from the earth, which tends to bring temperature down again.
The Frenzied Prophets
There is always a market for prophecies of disaster; frenzied proph-
ets are always on hand to make them. In 1968, a biologist, Paul Ehrlich,
was predicting that limits on food-production would create famine that by
1985 would kill milions to bring population into balance with the food
supply. But food production, food surpluses, and population grew. Today
Ehrlich is predicting that global warming will produce massive extinction
by raising the level of the seas, which will flood vast areas.
Discredited prophets like Ehrlich somehow manage to survive, but
more attention has lately been attracted by Dr. James Hansen, a scientist
at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. In testimony to
Congress he has predicted, citing the hot summer of 1988 as an early in-
dicator, that in the coming decades, carbon dioxide will cause large
increases in global temperature. Relying on his testimony, Senator
Albert Gore is trying to ignite his next presidential campaign with warn-
ings that drastic policies must be pursued to avoid that disaster.
Meteorologist Richard Lindzen of the Massachusetts Institute of
Technology sums it up: "Unfortunately, scientists like Hansen (and poli-
ticians like Gore) are always tempted to play God, to act as if they know
what lies ahead. Less than 20 years ago, many of these same people were
openly forecasting a new ice age--using the same premises as for global
warming. It's all so idiotic."
The High Cost of Bad Science
Congressmen are calling for a reduction of carbon dioxide emis-
sions. Global leaders held a meeting for the same purpose.
Naturally, these alarmists are not proposing expansion of nuclear
power to cut emissions. They prefer policies with the highest costs and
greatest sacrifices to our standard of living. They urge higher stan-
dards of miles-per-gallon for automobiles, even though carbon dioxide e-
missions would be cut by only one-tenth of one percent. They are urging
the most costly method of cutting emissions from electric power plants.
They are demanding that we cut back on our use of energy.
All these sacrifices are to be made to prevent something that isn't
happening, based on a crude theory that doesn't work.
Copyright, N & G Sirkin, Sherman, Connecticut, 1989.
* * *
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